PROJECT NIHR206126.09
Related Output(s):
The Care Policy and Evaluation Centre at LSE has developed over many years a suite of simulation models for producing projections of demand for long-term care services and associated costs – public expenditure and costs to service users. The projections are estimates of future demand and expenditure based on important assumptions, for example about future increases in social care staff pay: they are not forecasts. This continuing work became part of the ASCRU work programme in 2019 and will continue through ASCRU2.
The aims are to make improvements to the models, examine the consequences for long-term care demand and costs of different patterns of care, and prepare a range of up-to-date projections for policy reviews and government spending reviews, as required by DHSC. Since spending reviews determine how much the government will allocate for different public services, including health and social care, DHSC need projections in order to build a well-argued case for resources for long-term health and social care.
The work will include continuing to re-structure the models used for younger adult groups, amending and/or enlarging the models to handle a wider range of options/scenarios for future patterns of care, and running the models to produce new projections of future demand and costs.
DHSC need the projections to inform longer-term policy development and planning, including plans to reform the financing of adult social care. The findings of the study will be written up as reports for DHSC followed by one or more papers for social policy or applied economics journals. The work will have policy impact when DHSC and possibly other government departments use the projections to inform policy development and planning.
Raphael Wittenberg (Co-Lead), Ruth Hancock (Co-Lead), Bo Hu, Amritpal Rehill
