PROJECT NIHR206126.10
The Care Policy and Evaluation Centre at LSE has developed over many years a suite of simulation models for producing projections of demand for long-term care services and associated costs – public expenditure and costs to service users. The projections are estimates of future demand and expenditure based on important assumptions, for example about future increases in social care staff pay: they are not forecasts. This continuing work became part of the ASCRU work programme in 2019 and will continue through ASCRU2.
The aims are to keep the projection/simulation models and their documentation up-to-date and prepare updated projections for government spending reviews and policy reviews, as required by DHSC. Since spending reviews determine how much the government will allocate for different public services, including health and social care, DHSC need projections in order to build a well-argued case for resources for long-term health and social care.
The work will include looking at and analysing a range of data sets used to populate the models, updating the computer models and associated documentation,, and running the models to produce new projections of future demand and costs.
DHSC need the projections to inform government spending reviews and longer-term policy development and planning, including plans to reform the financing of adult social care. The findings of the study will be written up as reports for DHSC. The work will have policy impact when DHSC and possibly other government departments use the projections to inform spending reviews, policy development and planning.
Raphael Wittenberg (Co-Lead), Ruth Hancock (Co-Lead), Bo Hu, Joaquin Mayorga Camus, Julia Pauschardt
