PROJECT PR-PRU-1217-21101.06
CPEC has developed over the years a number of models for producing projections of demand for long-term care and associated expenditure. These models have been used extensively for producing projections for Spending Review, reviews of the social care funding system and OBR fiscal sustainability analyses.
This project aimed to:
This project reviewed the existing CPEC aggregate projections models to improve them where data permit, make them more user-friendly where feasible and produce a user-guide to assist policy analysts to use them.
The models were kept up-to-date by checking the availability of new data from official statistics and national surveys. The models were periodically incorporate new ONS population projections, NHS Digital data on social care and Health Survey for England (HSE) data on needs and receipt of care by older people. New analyses was carried out to explore the relationships between need for care, receipt of unpaid care and use of care services, and updated projections of numbers of younger adults with care needs, especially numbers with learning disabilities, were incorporated.
Current base case assumptions and scenarios relating to trends in the drivers of demand for care and in the unit costs of care were reviewed.
Further evidence-based scenarios on future trends in disability rates in old age were developed and the implications of those trends for future demand for long-term care and associated expenditure will be examined.
This project is being undertaken in collaboration with the NIHR Older People and Frailty (OPFPRU) Policy Research Unit.
Raphael Wittenberg (Lead), Bo Hu, Amritpal Rehill
