BACKGROUND

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CPEC has developed over the years several models for producing projections of demand for long-term care and associated expenditure. These models have been used extensively for producing projections for Spending Reviews, reviews of the social care funding system and OBR fiscal sustainability analyses. DHSC continue to require projections for these purposes. 

Development of the projection models and production of updated projections became part of the ASCRU work programme from January 2019, and remains part of the ASCRU2 work programme. 

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AIMS

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This project aims to:

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• keep the aggregate projections models up to date by incorporating the most recent relevant ONS, NHS England, Health Survey for England (HSE) and other relevant data;

• make such changes to the models as will be necessary to conduct such sensitivity analyses as will be requested by and discussed with DHSC;

• improve the documentation of the models;

• investigate the impact on projected future demand for and expenditure on adult social care of different scenarios for future trends in some of the drivers of demand for care services such as varying assumptions on the future supply of unpaid care; and 

• produce projections for DHSC and the OBR at key times to be agreed with DHSC.​

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METHODS

 

To keep our models up to date, we will check the availability of new data from official statistics and national surveys. We will periodically incorporate new ONS population projections, NHS England data on social care and Health Survey for England (HSE) data on needs and receipt of care by older people.

There are ongoing discussions about producing updated projections of demand for adult social care and associated expenditure and variant scenarios on a range of variables, and we will run projections as required by DHSC. 

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